Mechanical Investing for October 2007

The news says this last month, will all the credit crunch and housing speculation, was one of the most volatile on record. I tried not to look until today, but it appears this portfolio weathered the storm ok. In fact, things are looking good enough I plan on diversifying a little and buy more stocks than I sell today, spreading the risk out a little.

  • Last 4 weeks: 7.4%
  • Last 3 months: 8.8%
  • Last 12 months: +13.2%
  • Year to date: +12.7% (Dow is +12.3% ytd from 12,463)

Holding for another month:

Ticker Bought Now Months Return  
MCY $53.85 $53.85 11 +0.0% Mercury General Corp. Sort of like putting it under a mattress. From the LPE_YLD screen.
MDR $39.815s $55.42 4 +39.2% McDermott International. From the Screamers screen, then the RSPeg2 screen, but now the TREPPE screen. Split-adjusted.
NOV $64.53s $73.18 1 +13.4% National Oilwell Varco Inc. From the Peg_Minimalist screen. Split-adjusted.
PFE $26.10 $24.89 8 -4.6% Pfizer Inc. From the LPE_YLD screen. Looks like a loss, but with dividends, it’s actually break even.
RDEN $24.76 $27.59 1 +11.4% Elizabeth Arden Inc. From the Peg_Minimalist screen.
SIGM $43.82 $49.349 1 +12.6% Sigma Designs, Inc, a tech-video company. From the Screamers and RSPeg2 screens.

Selling these:

Ticker Bought Sold Months Return  
ARTC $57.39 $55.91 1 -2.6% Arthrocare Corp. From the RSPeg2 screen.
CLB $101.74 $127.56 2 +25.3% Core Laboratories NV. From the Peg_Minimalist screen.
FDP $27.61 $29.76 2 +7.85.0% Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. From the H52EgPS screen.
FOSL $33.95 $38.42 1 +13.1% Fossil Inc. From the Screamers screen.
PKOH $20.80 $27.54 5 +32.4% Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. Originally from the H52EgPS screen, then RSPeg2, but now TREPPE.
SFD $32.76 $32.02 1 -2.2% Smithfield Foods Inc. From the H52EgPS screen.

New stocks for this month:

Ticker Bought Sold Months Return  
ARTC $57.39 $N/A 0 N/A% Arthrocare Corp. From the RSPeg2 screen.
AXYS $31.37 $N/A 0 N/A% Axsys Technologies. From the Screamers screen.
CASY $28.42 $N/A 0 N/A% Casey’s General Stores. From the H52EarnPS screen.
CMI $132.58 $N/A 0 N/A% CUMMINS INC. From the TREPPE screen.
DO $114.11 $N/A 0 N/A% Diamond Offshore Drilling. From the Peg_Minimalist screen.
FCX $110.86 $N/A 0 N/A% FREEPORT-MCMORAN COPPER & GOLD. From the H52EarnPS screen.
FMER $20.13 $N/A 0 N/A% FirstMerit Corp. From the LPE_YLD screen.
KWR $23.86 $N/A 0 N/A% Quaker Chemical. From the H52EarnPS screen.
NOK $37.82 $N/A 0 N/A% Nokia. From the RSPeg2 screen.
NSIT $26.26 $N/A 0 N/A% INSIGHT ENTERPRISES INC. From the H52EarnPS screen.
PENX $37.83 $N/A 0 N/A% PENFORD CORP. From the RSPeg2 screen.
TPX $36.62 $N/A 0 N/A% TempurPedic. From the Screamers screen.
WTNY $26.77 $N/A 0 N/A% WHITNEY HLDG CORP. From the LPE_YLD screen.

6/3 Options:

Ticker Bought Sold Months Return  
MDRBA $7.38 $7.80 1 +5.7% MDR Feb 2008 Calls. Sell in early December.
RZJDC $14.00 $14.90 1 +6.4% GRMN Apr 2008 Calls. Sell in early December.
AXVDJ $27.30 $N/A 0 N/A% ISRG Apr 2008 250 Calls. Sell in early January.
RULAA $8.70 $N/A 0 N/A% RIMM Mar 2008 106.62 Calls. Sell in early January.

The next trade will be November 5.

Mechanical Investing for September 2007

With all the volatility this month, I thought it would be bad… but the month was basically a wash, a little higher than before. The market, though, has started to pull away a bit. My goal continues to be to beat the market, but that’s not currently happening. It’s September, so I’m easing back into some options again, buying out of the money calls.

  • Last 4 weeks: 2.8%
  • Last 3 months: -0.5%
  • Last 12 months: +4.5%
  • Year to date: +5.4% (Dow is +7.5 ytd from 12,463)

Holding for another month:

Ticker Bought Now Months Return  
CLB $101.74 $113.0 1 +11.1% Core Laboratories NV. From the Peg_Minimalist screen.
FDP $27.61 $26.24 1 -5.0% Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. Sort of like overripe fruit. From the H52EgPS screen.
MCY $53.85 $53.16 10 -1.3% Mercury General Corp. From the LPE_YLD screen.
MDR $79.63 $95.47 3 +19.9% McDermott International. From the Screamers screen, then the RSPeg2 screen, but now the TREPPE screen.
PKOH $20.80 $27.43 4 +31.9% Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. Originally from the H52EgPS screen, then RSPeg2, but now TREPPE. Getting a little long in the tooth, though.
PFE $26.10 $24.97 7 -4.3% Pfizer Inc. From the LPE_YLD screen. Looks like a loss, but with dividends, it’s actually break even.

Selling these:

Ticker Bought Sold Months Return  
CFI $11.85 $9.97 1 -15.9% Culp Inc. Well, they can’t all be winners. From the Peg_Minimalist screen.
DO $92.90 $107.83 1 +16.1% Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. From the TREPPE screen.
ISRG $206.66 $223.56 1 +8.2% Intuitive Surgical Inc. From the Screamers screen.
MLI $37.30 $35.20 1 -5.6% Mueller Industries Inc. From the H52EgPS screen.
NVT $64.37 $66.58 1 +3.4% NAVTEQ Corp. From the Screamers screen.
PCU $96.95 $107.53 1 +10.9% Southern Copper Corp. From the TREPPE screen.

New stocks for this month:

Ticker Bought Sold Months Return  
ARTC $57.39 $N/A 0 N/A% Arthrocare Corp. From the RSPeg2 screen.
FOSL $33.95 $N/A 0 N/A% Fossil Inc. Dinosaurs? Nope, fashion accessories. From the Screamers screen.
RDEN $24.76 $N/A 0 N/A% Elizabeth Arden Inc. From the Peg_Minimalist screen.
SFD $32.76 $N/A 0 N/A% Smithfield Foods Inc. That’s fun, they’re a “hog producer.” From the H52EgPS screen.
SIGM $43.82 $N/A 0 N/A% Sigma Designs, Inc, a tech-video company. From the Screamers and RSPeg2 screens.
NOV $129.06 $N/A 0 N/A% National Oilwell Varco Inc. From the Peg_Minimalist screen.

6/3 Options:

Ticker Bought Sold Months Return  
MDRBA $7.38 $N/A 0 N/A% MDR Feb 2008 Calls. Sell in early December.
RZJDC $14.00 $N/A 0 N/A% GRMN Apr 2008 Calls. Sell in early December.

The next trade will be October 1.

Mechanical Investing for August 2007

I was traveling this week on business, so I didn’t get a chance to trade until today. Ouch, it bit me, too. I would have been better off investing in chocolate this month, at least I’d retain some of the capital. 🙂

Interestingly, some of the gurus over at the Mechanical Investing board have started working on models that predict volatility, and this month’s volatility was predicted a few weeks ago. I’ll have to pay more attention to that.

  • Last 4 weeks: -1.6%
  • Last 3 months: -0.3%
  • Last 12 months: +4.8%
  • Year to date: +5.0% (Dow is +6.5 ytd from 12,463)

Holding for another month:

Ticker Bought Now Months Return  
MCY $53.85 $52.76 9 -2.06% Mercury General Corp. From the LPE_YLD screen.
MDR $79.63 $80.62 2 +1.18% McDermott International. From the Screamers screen, but now it’s on the RSPeg2 screen.
PKOH $20.80 $26.21 3 +26.21% Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. Originally from the H52EgPS screen, but now on RSPeg2.
PFE $26.10 $23.87 6 -8.61% Pfizer Inc. From the LPE_YLD screen. Looks like a loss, but with dividends, it’s actually up a little.

Selling these:

Ticker Bought Sold Months Return  
CAE $82.51 $65.14 1 -21.71% Cascade Corp. From the Screamers screen. Ouch. Screamers do that.
CMCO $34.14 $23.60 1 -31.04% Columbus-McKinnon. From the RSPeg2 screen. Ouch.
MCK $59.51 $59.74 1 +0.33% McKesson Corp. From the H52EgPS screen.
PENX $30.45 $32.86 1 +7.72% Penford Corp. From the Screamers screen.
PFGC $32.98 $28.30 1 -14.09% Performance Food. From the H52EgPS screen. Ouch.
RNR $58.99 $55.78 2 -5.34% RenaissanceRe Holdings. From the Peg_Minimalist screen. A casualty (heh) of the marker volatility.
RS $46.37 $49.39 4 +6.4% Reliance Steel and Aluminum Co. From the TREPPE screen.
XL $84.73 $74.01 1 -13.27% XL Capital Ltd. From the Peg_Minimalist screen.

New stocks for this month:

Ticker Bought Sold Months Return  
CFI $11.85 $N/A 0 N/A% Culp Inc. From the Peg_Minimalist screen.
CLB $101.74 $N/A 0 N/A% Core Laboratories NV. From the Peg_Minimalist screen.
DO $92.90 $N/A 0 N/A% Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. From the TREPPE screen.
FDP $27.61 $N/A 0 N/A% Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. From the H52EgPS screen.
ISRG $206.66 $N/A 0 N/A% Intuitive Surgical Inc. Maybe they perform operations by really good guessing. From the Screamers screen.
MLI $37.30 $N/A 0 N/A% Mueller Industries Inc. From the H52EgPS screen.
NVT $64.37 $N/A 0 N/A% NAVTEQ Corp. From the Screamers screen.
PCU $96.95 $N/A 0 N/A% Southern Copper Corp. From the TREPPE screen.

6/3 Options:

Ticker Bought Sold Months Return  
No more options until October.

The next trade will be September 4.